{"id":5086,"date":"2026-10-08T08:39:50","date_gmt":"2026-10-08T06:39:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/nettop.guru\/wordpress\/?p=5086"},"modified":"2026-10-08T08:40:23","modified_gmt":"2026-10-08T06:40:23","slug":"the-strength-of-knowledge-concept-in-risk-assessment-rationale-and-use","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nettop.guru\/wordpress\/the-strength-of-knowledge-concept-in-risk-assessment-rationale-and-use\/","title":{"rendered":"The strength of knowledge concept in risk assessment: Rationale and use\u00a0"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Professors Terje Aven and Roger Flage discuss the strength of knowledge concept in risk assessment: why probabilities alone are not enough, how the idea developed from Keynes and NUSAP to contemporary risk science, and how strength of knowledge can be judged and used in practice.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Speakers: Professor Terje Aven and Professor Roger Flage, University of Stavanger.<br \/>Series: Fundamental issues in risk science.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u00a0<\/p>\n<ul style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\n<li>How we became interested in the topic 0:55<\/li>\n<li>Historical review: Keynes and logical probabilities \u00a03:05<\/li>\n<li>Pat\u00e9-Cornell: firm and soft probabilities 6:25<\/li>\n<li>The NUSAP system \u00a07:05<\/li>\n<li>The IPCC approach \u00a010:45<\/li>\n<li>Probability, knowledge and strength of knowledge 14:10<\/li>\n<li>A practical scoring scheme 16:55<\/li>\n<li>From knowledge K to probability P \u2013 justification of transformation \u00a018:40<\/li>\n<li>From component judgments to the overall risk assessment \u00a021:50<\/li>\n<li>Strength of knowledge and trustworthiness 22:45<\/li>\n<li>Does SoK make risk assessment too complicated? \u00a0\u00a023:45<\/li>\n<li>Use in practice and the main challenge 24:20<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<div class=\"powerpress_player\" id=\"powerpress_player_1127\"><audio class=\"wp-audio-shortcode\" id=\"audio-5086-1\" preload=\"none\" style=\"width: 100%;\" controls=\"controls\"><source type=\"audio\/mpeg\" src=\"https:\/\/media.blubrry.com\/erasmus_enfermera_espaola\/dts.podtrac.com\/redirect.mp3\/podcast.uis.no\/media\/Fundamental_issues_in_risk_science\/2026_0914_1403_MASTER.mp3?_=1\" \/><a href=\"https:\/\/media.blubrry.com\/erasmus_enfermera_espaola\/dts.podtrac.com\/redirect.mp3\/podcast.uis.no\/media\/Fundamental_issues_in_risk_science\/2026_0914_1403_MASTER.mp3\">https:\/\/media.blubrry.com\/erasmus_enfermera_espaola\/dts.podtrac.com\/redirect.mp3\/podcast.uis.no\/media\/Fundamental_issues_in_risk_science\/2026_0914_1403_MASTER.mp3<\/a><\/audio><\/div><p class=\"powerpress_links powerpress_links_mp3\" style=\"margin-bottom: 1px !important;\">Podcast: <a href=\"https:\/\/media.blubrry.com\/erasmus_enfermera_espaola\/dts.podtrac.com\/redirect.mp3\/podcast.uis.no\/media\/Fundamental_issues_in_risk_science\/2026_0914_1403_MASTER.mp3\" class=\"powerpress_link_pinw\" target=\"_blank\" title=\"Play in new window\" onclick=\"return powerpress_pinw('https:\/\/nettop.guru\/wordpress\/?powerpress_pinw=5086-podcast');\" rel=\"nofollow\">Play in new window<\/a> | <a href=\"https:\/\/media.blubrry.com\/erasmus_enfermera_espaola\/dts.podtrac.com\/redirect.mp3\/podcast.uis.no\/media\/Fundamental_issues_in_risk_science\/2026_0914_1403_MASTER.mp3\" class=\"powerpress_link_d\" title=\"Download\" rel=\"nofollow\" download=\"2026_0914_1403_MASTER.mp3\">Download<\/a> (Duration: 25:40 &#8212; 23.5MB) | <a href=\"#\" class=\"powerpress_link_e\" title=\"Embed\" onclick=\"return powerpress_show_embed('5086-podcast');\" rel=\"nofollow\">Embed<\/a><\/p><p class=\"powerpress_embed_box\" id=\"powerpress_embed_5086-podcast\" style=\"display: none;\"><input id=\"powerpress_embed_5086-podcast_t\" type=\"text\" value=\"&lt;iframe width=&quot;320&quot; height=&quot;30&quot; src=&quot;https:\/\/nettop.guru\/wordpress\/?powerpress_embed=5086-podcast&amp;amp;powerpress_player=mediaelement-audio&quot; title=&quot;Blubrry Podcast Player&quot; frameborder=&quot;0&quot; scrolling=&quot;no&quot;&gt;&lt;\/iframe&gt;\" onclick=\"javascript: this.select();\" onfocus=\"javascript: this.select();\" style=\"width: 70%;\" readOnly><\/p><p class=\"powerpress_links powerpress_subscribe_links\">Subscribe: <a href=\"https:\/\/subscribebyemail.com\/nettop.guru\/wordpress\/feed\/podcast\/\" class=\"powerpress_link_subscribe powerpress_link_subscribe_email\" target=\"_blank\" title=\"Subscribe by Email\" rel=\"nofollow\">Email<\/a> | <a href=\"https:\/\/nettop.guru\/wordpress\/feed\/podcast\/\" class=\"powerpress_link_subscribe powerpress_link_subscribe_rss\" target=\"_blank\" title=\"Subscribe via RSS\" rel=\"nofollow\">RSS<\/a> | <a href=\"https:\/\/nettop.guru\/wordpress\/\" class=\"powerpress_link_subscribe powerpress_link_subscribe_more\" target=\"_blank\" title=\"More\" rel=\"nofollow\">More<\/a><\/p><!--powerpress_player-->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Professors Terje Aven and Roger Flage discuss the strength of knowledge concept in risk assessment: why probabilities alone are not enough, how the idea developed from Keynes and NUSAP to contemporary risk science, and how strength of knowledge can be <span class=\"readmore\"><a href=\"https:\/\/nettop.guru\/wordpress\/the-strength-of-knowledge-concept-in-risk-assessment-rationale-and-use\/\">Les mer &#8230;<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":4604,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[2390],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5086","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-fundamental-issues-in-risk-science"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/nettop.guru\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/TAven_Podcast_FundamentalRisk_440x300px.png?fit=440%2C300&ssl=1","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p7OAJ5-1k2","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":4700,"url":"https:\/\/nettop.guru\/wordpress\/rebutting-some-common-ideas-about-risk\/","url_meta":{"origin":5086,"position":0},"title":"Rebutting some common ideas about risk","author":"NettOp UiS","date":"17\/11\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Professor Terje Aven is rebutting some common ideas about risk: \u201cRisk is same as risk perception\u201d, \u201cRisk is adequately understood and characterized using quantification, probabilities and numbers\u201d, \u201cResilience needs to be addressed beyond risk\u00a0 -\u00a0 resilience needs more focus than risk\u201d and \u201cGeneric risk science knowledge and guidance are not\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Fundamental issues in risk science&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Fundamental issues in risk science","link":"https:\/\/nettop.guru\/wordpress\/category\/fundamental-issues-in-risk-science\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/nettop.guru\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/TAven_Podcast_FundamentalRisk_440x300px.png?fit=440%2C300&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":4606,"url":"https:\/\/nettop.guru\/wordpress\/a-history-of-risk-science-conversation-with-the-author-professor-terje-aven\/","url_meta":{"origin":5086,"position":1},"title":"&#8220;A History of Risk Science\u201d: Conversation with the author professor Terje Aven","author":"NettOp UiS","date":"27\/08\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Host: Associate Professor Marja Yl\u00f6nen Featuring Professor Terje Aven Join us as we discuss the author's new book, A History of Risk Science, tracing the evolution of risk science from its origins to today. We will \u00a0highlight foundational concepts and principles, offering valuable insights for academics, professionals, and students. A\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Fundamental issues in risk science&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Fundamental issues in risk science","link":"https:\/\/nettop.guru\/wordpress\/category\/fundamental-issues-in-risk-science\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/nettop.guru\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/TAven_Podcast_FundamentalRisk_440x300px.png?fit=440%2C300&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":4940,"url":"https:\/\/nettop.guru\/wordpress\/the-phd-process-guidance-for-students-and-supervisors-an-interview-with-professor-terje-aven-by-associate-professor-marja-ylonen\/","url_meta":{"origin":5086,"position":2},"title":"The PhD Process: Guidance for Students and Supervisors. An interview with professor Terje Aven by associate professor Marja Yl\u00f6nen","author":"NettOp UiS","date":"12\/05\/2026","format":false,"excerpt":"In this interview with Professor Terje Aven by associate professor Marja Yl\u00f6nen, \u00a0\u00a0Aven reveals why paper writing is the real skill of a PhD, how to write every day without burning out, why supervisors must be tough, and why an ambition of \u2018changing the world\u2019 is the fastest way to\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Fundamental issues in risk science&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Fundamental issues in risk science","link":"https:\/\/nettop.guru\/wordpress\/category\/fundamental-issues-in-risk-science\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/nettop.guru\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/TAven_Podcast_FundamentalRisk_440x300px.png?fit=440%2C300&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":4753,"url":"https:\/\/nettop.guru\/wordpress\/building-a-world-class-risk-safety-science-university-centre-lessons-from-45-years-in-stavanger\/","url_meta":{"origin":5086,"position":3},"title":"Building a World-Class Risk &#038; Safety Science University Centre: Lessons from 45 Years in Stavanger","author":"NettOp UiS","date":"25\/01\/2026","format":false,"excerpt":"In this interview with Professor Terje Aven by associate professor Marja Yl\u00f6nen, Aven reflects on his experience building a world-class risk and safety science center at the University of Stavanger. 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