Professors Terje Aven and Roger Flage discuss the strength of knowledge concept in risk assessment: why probabilities alone are not enough, how the idea developed from Keynes and NUSAP to contemporary risk science, and how strength of knowledge can be judged and used in practice.
Speakers: Professor Terje Aven and Professor Roger Flage, University of Stavanger.
Series: Fundamental issues in risk science.
- How we became interested in the topic 0:55
- Historical review: Keynes and logical probabilities 3:05
- Paté-Cornell: firm and soft probabilities 6:25
- The NUSAP system 7:05
- The IPCC approach 10:45
- Probability, knowledge and strength of knowledge 14:10
- A practical scoring scheme 16:55
- From knowledge K to probability P – justification of transformation 18:40
- From component judgments to the overall risk assessment 21:50
- Strength of knowledge and trustworthiness 22:45
- Does SoK make risk assessment too complicated? 23:45
- Use in practice and the main challenge 24:20
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